This is for Sijui 
So I tend to avoid blogging about SA politics on this blog, because I don’t have much of a local perspective beyond what I get from the local media (I’ve found SA to be a difficult place to integrate into/get localized, but that’s a story for another day).
With the Polokwane conference coming up in two weeks, and Zuma managing to surprise everyone by getting support beyond Kwa Zulu Natal and Mpumalanga (the ANC Women’s League has picked him as a candidate! And the vote in Eastern Cape – Mbeki’s traditional stronghold was close. Can you say shocking?!), the mood is generally one of trying to come to grips with the idea of a Zuma presidency.
I was one of the many people who argued that while Zuma had popular support, he’d never get enough support from the delegates to become the ANC President – the delegates would be more sensible and more insulated from popular pressure…we presumed. Not. And then there was always the expectation that a compromise candidate would emerge (Cyril Ramaphosa, Kgalema Motlanthe came up frequently). That didn’t happen either.
So what did happen?
When thinking about this post it occurred to me that there are similarities with the current political situation in Kenya. Zuma being analogous to Raila – both are polarizing figures, popular with the masses, paid their dues in the struggle for democracy, feared by the business community (except Indians who are supporting both candidates behind the scenes), already being tagged as a despot, shady financial dealings in the past, great public presence, etc. And Mbeki being analogous to Kibaki (well aside from the intellectual part) in having presided over a strong economy but with little trickle down to the majority, being perceived as aloof, surrounded by a loyal cabal, etc.
Both the Mbeki and the Kibaki groups thought a Zuma / Odinga presidency was far-fetched and they let the respective candidates get a lot of traction on the premise that “the people” would be smart enough to see that their opponents are heavy on rhetoric and light on everything else. I think Mbeki and Kibaki also suffered from a sense of hubris. Mbeki more than Kibaki.
Mbeki should never have run for a third term, in my opinion, and instead should handed over to someone who had more appeal across the party or worked to cultivate a compromise candidate – in sticking around he has done much more harm than good and has threatened both his legacy and the strength of the ANC. I don’t think he realized how alienated he was. Then again his whole life has been the ANC, so I can sort of understand the reluctance to leave the helm (buying the well-received biography of Mbeki by Mark Gevisser this week to get more insight into the man. But I digress. They are calls for him to quit the race now, but I highly doubt he will step down – he’s going to fight till the end.
Similarly, Kibaki has made many unnecessary missteps in his quest for a second term and is now scrambling to turn this around, when he should have ditched the old fogeys surrounding him a long time ago (I mean Moody as V-P, he could have easily pulled Rift Valley or Western with a younger, switched on person and I could go on and on…. Yes the country has made strides under Kibaki, but a lot of people are still on the sidelines and there’s no indication that they will be brought in during the next five years. Is Raila going to do things differently? Who knows? But the general sense on the ground is that Kenyans need change and if ODM messes up they’ll also be voted out. In South Africa, lots of people are also feeling left out and disenchanted by where things are post 1994 (whether this is fair on Mbeki is another post). There is a yearning for more radical change. Will Zuma’s left leanings really be translated in to better policies for the masses? Who knows? But they are willing to take the chance.
Gosh this is beginning to read like a composition
My two cents (disclaimer: at this point in time…hehehe) Zuma and Raila will likely be elected President; they will find themselves hobbled by the realities of governing a country and won’t be as radical as they sound now – the danger, I think, is not so much them as individuals (can we say bogeymen?), but rather the constituencies they are appealing to right now. They are appealing to people with very little to lose, and whose expectations are going to be sky high – what happens when folks realize they’ve been taken for a ride (which I believe will happen)? How Zuma and Raila manage their constituencies once in power will be the true test of what their impact as Presidents will be.
OK that’s it for now…got to get back to stuff that pays the bills.
Stay tuned for Monday night quarter-backing. Hopefully I won’t have too much egg on my face!
A group of us had this very conversation about a week ago. I agree with your analysis, especially the post election realities. Hope you’ll do a post soon on how/why SA is a difficult place to integrate into….
Interesting you mentioned that issue of integrating into SA. A Kenyan friend of mine working for the South African branch of an International firm has the same problem with integration. Is it a ‘Kenyan thing and SA thing ama both?’ would like your take on that.
Funny? thing happened to my previous boss (is British who is married to a Black African Lady) had the misfortune of being asked to tell the ‘help’ ( his wife was carrying their new born daughter) to use the back door when he went for dinner at a client (white SAian) at his home.He was not amused.
South Africa, so wonderfully contradictory.
DER
interesting.
in the case of Kibaki, what’s seems to be forgotten today is that the mzee has lost key point-men, Wamalwa, Karisa Maitha and Mirugi just to name a few.
These guys were critical to Kibaki’s team and would have probably given the mzee a much easier run ceteris paribus.
Bless you Ory for indulging me!!!!! I have been riveted by the SA situation because well……for one I consider South African politics more substantive than Kenya’s and to cut to the chase, the calibre of their political leadership far, far, far superior than Kenya’s. I remain convinced that apartheid was a blessing for cultivating real intellect, integrity and statesmanship in their political elite, and frankly without it I’d argue Mandela, Thambo et al would not have risen to the occasion (they had enough time in prison to reflect on the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the political elite throughout the continent who had brought nothing but shame and humiliation). I digress…….
And so that is why I am horrified, no hysterical that it is coming to this! You are right there are many parallels with Kenya but it is hard to accept that Zuma is the best they can do when their political echeleons are peppered with people like Trevor Manuel ………
Your analysis seems spot on based on what I have been reading (especially White South African media)…..this boils down to an anti Mbeki vote amongst the rank and file moreso than a pro-Zuma one. I also picked up on another comment you made about support amongst people with nothing to lose.
What I hope is that the progressive elements in South Africa who are a sizable and mobilized constituency prevail upon Mbeki to step aside and cultivate a consensus candidate that neutralizes the strong anti-Mbeki fervour and allows space for people to think rationally without being clouded by emotions. Recent polls say 30% of Black South Africans dread a Zuma presidency, I assume this is the core middle class/lower middle class and wealthy segments so he is not unassailable if a legitimate alternative is found.
I read Tutu weighed in with a categorical statement, “South Africa must not elect a leader that will make the country and continent ashamed”……….frankly Kenya can afford a Raila presidency because we do not have the stature South Africa has……….Tutu’s comment emphasizes that perfectly, South Africa cannot relegate itself to that league based on the legacy of its post apartheid leadership.
P.S. I too must read ‘A Dream Deferred’………. I admire and respect the man for his tireless and thankless pursuit of African intellectualism his other flaws notwithstanding.
P.P.S You must do a post on your thoughts concerning integrating in to SA society, I have heard diverse opinions from Kenyan pals there, would love to hear your’s based on the work you’re doing…
“How Zuma and Raila manage their constituencies once in power will be the true test of what their impact as Presidents will be. ”
On this score I have more faith in Raila…….he may be many things but he is nobody’s fool, more importantly he does have an intellect…….Zuma is the garden variety imbecile and malleable to the interests backing him. The man has a Standard 8 education for God’s sake……….parallels closely with a Moi whose transformation in to a tyrant was made easy by the fact that he was intellectually insecure.
I guess it boils down to this for me, it kills me that all those sanctimonious White South Africans who fled will have the last laugh…..”give a black man a horse and he’ll ride it to death.”
@sijui – mugabe has a doctoral degree and that did not stop him from ruining hes country. Rail will need a STRONG opposition to keep him on toes kenya has weak institutions. South africa has a strong institutional framewor that regardless of apartheid have existed since 1915. south africa can survive zuma because of its institutiuons kenya may not be able to survive a reckless raila.
Joe you’re right hence my point that apartheid helped cultivate ‘real’ intellect, integrity and statesmanship. Indeed the problem with African elites is not a lack of educational attainment, the problem is a lack of intellectual self confidence, genuine integrity and a moral compass hence the reason we haven’t produced Lee Kuan Yews and Mahathir Mohammeds……..
And you’re also right about institutions……..yes the saving grace may be South Africa’s institutions but I am not sure institutions can save a country from destructive public policy especially when that policy is legitimate and in adherance to the laws of the land. Hence the need for an effective opposition………but herein lies the problem, SA’s opposition amounts to mainly progressive and some racist White, Asian and other factions with limited legitimacy with the majority. ANC right now is a forced political monolith because of its history and a loveless marriage because real ideological differences have emerged. So how will destructive Zuma policies be challenged when they originate within ANC and it is the party that represents Black South Africans?
I blame Mbeki for the state of affairs in addition to the ANC ‘elders’ for insisting on this party line ‘straight jacket.’ And I’m not one of those who believe that COSATU and SCP have little merit, they have much to offer in terms of alternatives and definitely there are many within their ranks who have the qualifications, integrity and experience to execute a coherent agenda, Jacob Zuma is not one of those, after all when he was stealing with his business advisor (pure capitalist) he didn’t share the spoils with his peeps in the sheebens so he’s a fraud.
@sijui thats alot of speculation
A former SA cabinet minister, Maharaj, has a nice commentary on Mbeki’s biography in the Mail&Guardian.
Sijui,
Did apartheid help cultivate the intellect of Black South Africans? I don’t think so! many of them were denied educational opportunities and they are still far behind in terms of skill set (it’s the reason why they initially had to rely on expatriates from countries like Kenya to teach at many of their universities).
I think the black South Africans simply inherited a modern economy with modern infrastructure, strong private companies, etc, etc, that were built by those mzungus! What Mbeki has “done” is simply not screwed things up. Now, is this intellectual brilliance or simply luck? And remember, when Mbeki took over in the early 90’s, institutions like the world bank were already re-examining the role of foreign aid in africa and were beginning to embrace free market economic policies (and placing a heavy emphasis on issues such as corruption). I think Mbeki inherited a well run economy, but he also came in at the “right” time.
Sijui,
Did apartheid help cultivate the intellect of Black South Africans? I don’t think so! many of them were denied educational opportunities and they are still far behind in terms of skill set (it’s the reason why they initially had to rely on expatriates from countries like Kenya to teach at many of their universities).
I think the black South Africans simply inherited a modern economy with modern infrastructure, strong private companies, etc, etc, that were built by those mzungus! What Mbeki has “done” is simply not screwed things up. Now, is this intellectual brilliance or simply luck? And remember, when Mbeki took over in the early 90’s, institutions like the world bank were already re-examining the role of foreign aid in africa and were beginning to embrace free market economic policies (and placing a heavy emphasis on issues such as corruption). I think Mbeki inherited a well run economy, but he also came in at the “right” time.
Kenyanentrepreneur.com
KE, I disagree with your assessment. Let’s look at the political ‘timber’ of SA’s black politicians namely Mandela, Oliver Tambo, Govan Mbeki etc and look at their personal and political metamorphosis over the past 50 years……….you will see a far different stock than our independence heroes Kenyatta, Nkrumah, Banda, Mobutu and ilk
The fact is the political discourse in Black South Africa is substantive and issue based not perpetually limited to ‘tumbo politics.’ In fact I was reading how the current ANC civil war under Mbeki dates back to an ideological falling out he had with Chris Hani and other leading lights of the SACP in the 80s when they were strategizing on the post apartheid scenario…..
Then of course there is the inescapable trajectory SA took under Mandela, yes he inherited a developed White South African economy but more importantly he exerted a moral and intellectual stature that prevented South Africa from disintegrating in to retribution and racial excess. It is an understatement to say that SA was on the brink, a lesser leader would have used the opportunity to consolidate power for patronage and sycophancy.
Again I agree that the point is Mbeki did not fuck up hence the perils of a Zuma presidency, but the point you’re missing is that Mbeki’s economic management team has been the BEST the country has ever seen and the White South African corporate community has acknowledged as much. The expansion and structure of the economy has outperformed the best years of the Boer Administrations including the period when they were not under sanctions! So it is more than just not fucking up, it is surpassing expectations.
And to clarify, I am comparing apples with apples……South Africa’s political elite with Africa’s political elite not the average mwananchi…….
the ANC inherited an economy that had virtually collapsed. and also KE the reaosn many african found jobs in SA was because of white flight many white left SA fearing black rule. – despite poor education in SA SA still has a large educated black middle class and skillled work force relative to many african countries. Skill shortages reflect the economy and receovery from the latter stages of apartheied when the youth were heavily involved in the struggle
@joe
Please explain why you say that the ANC inherited an economy that had virtually collapsed?
I’m a white guy in SA and apart from the ANC inheriting a stagnant economy with a lot of dept, I can hardly see how it was “virtually collapsed”. We can look at Zimbabwe for an example of a collapsing economy. Nothing of the sort happened here.
With regards to the skills shortage, it was exacerbated by the (purposefully) inferior bantu education system of the National Party which I believe was one of the most short sighted and damaging mistakes of the previous regime. South Africa is now reaping the fruits of that policy.
With regards to Zuma – assuming he becomes president – I think the big test will be when his hold on power is threatened. Will he start changing the constitution and implement radical reforms (such as Bob Mugabe) to appease the poor (which will likely ruin SA’s economy), or will he abide by the democratic ideal of a revolving leadership and pass the torch to a successor?
The ideal of limiting the number of terms a leader may serve and ensuring that this is enforced is enormously important for a stable democracy in preventing abuse of power and a possible dictatorship. Sadly this has been neglected in many African states with dire consequences.
To again refer to Zimbabwe, if Bob Mugabe was forced to step down after two terms and make way for a successor, we might not have had the economic meltdown in Zim.
It is sad that this kind of leadership is what awaits the much loved ANC, Mandela’s party. I blame Thabo Mbeki. He should have avoided this by being a better schemer. South Africa deserves better.
No, KOPP.
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Sijui,
Stalking you now:twisted:
There are indeed many similarities between Zuma and Raila. I have not heard many of Zuma’s plans, but I hope he knows something about delegation having himself served in executive positions before. His lack of education only becomes relevant if he takes his own counsel and elects to ignore the advice of those who know better than he does.
This is also the great danger with Raila, and I’d be pleased to know from Sijui what informs his optimism on an ODM government. Most of the ideas they announce in their manifesto and other proposals are truly ridiculous, and I find it hard to believe that Nyong’o spawned them. I am also worried by such statements as the one he made on Kenya Airways and Miraa. People, even Presidents, need to know their place. This is the danger with the fantasies about Lee Kwan Yew and Dr Mohammed, not everyone can fit in such shoes. Raila definitely cannot. Change will come from a culture of service and a holding to account, from from educated or nice:???: leaders.
Now, with regard to institutions, both in Kenya and abroad, the danger has always been that when a party or a candidate is too powerful, no institutions can stand in their way. A skilful grassroots politician like George Bush, Zuma or Raila can appeal to the people whether indirectly or directly for permission to walk all over such institutions. George Bush obviously is the best example of this, but the examples of Thatcher, Kohl and even Mahathir Mohammed show that institutions are like putty in a strong leaders hands. In fact, crises only serve to strengthen such a leader’s grip, again GWB after 9/11, or Dr Mohammed during the Asian Financial Crisis.
South Africa will likely go the Zimbabwe route, i.e. forced land repatriation. It is unavoidable if they stick to their present policies that reward a black middle class and further enervate the rural poor. They should try borrow a leaf from Kibaki, or from the Swynnerton Plan. The ANC’s Freedom Charter does not indicate a natural inclination to do this, so it is not likely that they will see the iceberg, not until it is too late.
Sijui, that was supposed to be a 😈 emoticon not the word twisted.
Ory, I believe you know better than most of us who are not in S.A , but my understanding from friends who studied and now work there, many S.African blacks don’t take it lightly at all, when any foreigner comments openly on thier political leaders.
Again, this is my understanding.
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