Kenyan Pundit

[Back home in Joburg, and playing catch-up]

Orengo speaks:

People must remember that the accord was a ceasefire document.
– At the time the State and its organs were unable to control the situation and were also engaged in the violence. The lack of confidence in the judiciary also eliminated it was an option.
– The problem has always been the State and its nature and this still remains the same.
– They tackled the composition of Cabinet but not of government and this is problematic.
– Issue of corruption / impunity the biggest challenge
– The principles are too far removed from the process
– He urged the media to take advantage of a more open parliament to really highlight the performance/non-performance of MPs

Sally Kosgei made a brief / interesting comment on how they – a group of 6 individuals including head of National Intelligence, Army Chief – managed the transition in 2002. Apparently they had been working on Moi to prepare him psychologically to hand over power since October. In her view Kibaki/PNU were never prepared to leave no matter what the results were and the “kitchen” Cabinet reinforced this.

I’m tired and sleepy, but the show must go on.

I arrived in Geneva for the Annan conference on Kenya this morning and haven’t had a chance to rest…too much going on.

I’ve been invited specifically because of my role as a blogger during the post election violence – which is huge – because it means that the Kenyan blogging scene is being taken seriously as an area of influence and a source of information (yeah for bloggers!). Unfortunately, the Chatham House Rules apply to most of the sessions, so I can’t be too detailed.

I’m sure there will still be lots to report about given my peskiness. So what’s happened so far..

– Shared a cab ride with Judge Kriegler from the Kriegler Commission. Cab ride chit chat led to breakfast. Unfortunately, the Judge was tight as a clam…he must have sensed my blogging radar…hehehe. I will say he seemed super-aware of his role as a foreigner when he did his work and maybe that’s why he stopped short of doing his job kabisa, unlike Waki. Anyway, he was quite friendly, a bit condescending, and apparently very unpopular with Kenyan civil society .

– At breakfast, sighted Karua, Wangari Maathai and Wako having breakfast together. Talk about strange bedfellows.

– Ran into a number of civil society friends including Maina Kiai, who had interesting stories about interviewing for the IEC gig…his interview lasted all of six minutes and he apparently was told by a source that he’d never get the gig because he had pissed on Kikuyus while he was at KNCHR. Frontrunner is Kaparo. Seeing the civil society guys lead to me being invited to sit in on a meeting with Annan and civil society reps to hear their views on where things are one year later.

– General prognosis, things are grim. Political space is diminishing, ethnic based militias are rearming (this time with AK-47s not machetes), the people are angry and disillusioned. Several references to Madagascar and the fact that the fire next time will be class based and not ethnic based.

– Potential flashpoints: census later this year; military given what happened in Molo/El Wak can’t be presumed to be professional any more…also suspension of the Tonje rules is formenting disquiet; a police force that’s running amok.

– There’s is a sense that the political class is numb, yet there can be no movement without them because they still hold enormous sway in Kenya e.g. forests are burning on the instructions of politicians; youth in Rift Valley were ready to cause havoc if the Ruto censure had gone down.

– Quote of the morning: “Kenya does not need reform, it needs an overhaul.”

OK, gotta run and clean up and get ready for the afternoon session…next post will be on the ICC option.

Comments open for the duration of the conference…please keep it civil!